> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.geopolitic.world/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Lebanon - URL: https://www.geopolitic.world/lebanon/ - Published: 2026-04-23T17:10:03.000Z - Updated: 2026-04-23T17:10:03.000Z - Description: and changing power dynamics... - Author: Holger Edquist - Tags: Newsletter, #Migrated-1788189989500, #Import 2026-08-31 17:27 The underlying conflicts simmering in the Middle East have, in stages, turned into a full eruption of hostilities. The United States and Israel have, for some time, with little risk, been able to attack Iran from the air, halting its military capabilities. In response Iran has fired drones and missiles, successfully holding regional interests at risk. Using a handful of mines they have closed the Strait of Hormuz and severely disrupted the global economy. The US counter-blockade is causing major disruptions for Iran and actors beyond the region, including China. This stalemate will not end before an agreement has been reached regarding Iran’s highly enriched uranium, a moratorium on further processing and the opening of the Straight of Hormuz. A deal without these parts would be strategically unwise for the actors capable of causing further severe damage to the Persian nation. Other things could also be laid on the negotiating table. Moving from the main theater other interesting opportunities have appeared. Iranian influence in Iraq and Lebanon is still holding. Between these nations lies Syria. The fall of Assad fundamentally changed the regional political landscape and harshly diminished Iranian influence. For the first time in many years the continuous corridor of influence from Tehran to the Mediterranean was severely weakened. Lebanon now lies as an island not directly connected through unbroken geography. The country broke apart internally several decades ago and many different power centres, foreign and domestic, arose. Syria, for long, acted as the dominant power but with a completely different agenda than the nation would have set for itself. After the assassination of Rafic Hariri in 2005 Syria was forced to exit the country. Left was a fractured power structure where no main actor could decisively rule. Hezbollah is the group now holding most power in the country. One could say that the organisation has hijacked the country. The group too has a very different agenda than the nation would set for itself and the organisation is uninterested in taking responsibility for state power. It prefers having a weak central government and a country from within which it can operate without interference. For clarity, this post is not taking sides in the region’s ancient conflict where many atrocities have been committed by all parties. I am simply observing the unfolding of events and possible ways for the region to move forward towards something less prone to erupting in the future. After decades of dwelling in the depths of the impossible, the construction of a functioning nation-state in Lebanon has breached the surface and entered the realm of the possible. **I assess that such a construction could now, given changing power dynamics, be *possible.* This window of opportunity has been shut for decades and will, if not realised, close again, probably for a prolonged period.** Achieving such a development would require the power dynamics in Lebanon to change even more. **Without the central government being the decisively strongest actor in the nation, recreating a functional nation-state will never succeed.** For it to succeed, tools other than a hammer will have to be utilised. Weakening Hezbollah is part of the blueprint, but alone, far from a solution. Israel will also have to settle without all their goals for the country realised to enable collaboration with other necessary parties. Instead of acting brutally and often unilaterally to keep temporarily safe, a lasting security could emerge on their northern border. For a chance of success, it would have to be a joint effort. Initiatives from only Israel and the US would be far from enough. A range of different actors hold sway in Lebanon. They all have different and often conflicting agendas. Many of them could, however, unite around the shared benefit of a functioning nation and the mutual interest of seeing Hezbollah's and Iran’s influence reduced. This kind and level of collaboration would be very unconventional and some rules, conventions and conflicts would have to, at least temporarily, be set aside. It would also have to be forceful. If the required change in the nation's power structure can not be, in a critical phase, achieved relatively swiftly, the endeavour is bound to fail. [Subscribe now](#/portal/signup) *Update 2026-07-01, changed:* “It would also have to be forceful. If the required change in the nation’s power structure can not be achieved relatively swiftly, the endeavour is bound to fail.” *to:* “It would also have to be forceful. If the required change in the nation’s power structure can not be, in a critical phase, achieved relatively swiftly, the endeavour is bound to fail. *Update 2026-08-26: Changed “*For the first time in many years the continuous corridor of influence from Tehran to the Mediterranean was broken.*” to “*For the first time in many years the continuous corridor of influence from Tehran to the Mediterranean was severely weakened.” *Update 2026-08-26: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.*