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# Nukes in Belarus
- URL: https://www.geopolitic.world/nukes-in-belarus/
- Published: 2023-03-31T22:08:14.000Z
- Updated: 2023-03-31T22:08:14.000Z
- Description: and why it really matters
- Author: Holger Edquist
- Tags: Newsletter, #Migrated-1788189989500, #Import 2026-08-31 17:27

The recent announcement that Russia will be placing nukes on Belarusian soil has gotten a lot of attention. This of course gives Russia an added nuclear deterrent against the West and a somewhat improved long-term strategic position generally. The main reason for this happening now however, is another.

One of Russia’s initial demands was that NATO remove nukes it has placed in different European countries and in Turkiye. This demand is from NATO’s strategic perspective an impossible one to fulfill under almost any circumstances. By instead countering this strategy tit-for-tat by placing nukes in Belarus constitutes an effective offramp for the issue to be put aside in future negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine.

Belarus is for sovereignty reasons ambivalent towards going too far in cementing ties with Russia and was resisting finalizing the deal without a guarantor. China has a big stake in how future events connected to the war play out and have been increasingly active in trying to find a solution in alignment with its interests. When Alexandr Lukasjenko visited Beijing recently, promises were made and assurances given to put the Belarusian leader at ease in regard to hosting the weapons.

**China has decided that it is in its interest to help set the table for future negotiations to end the violence in Ukraine. China has however, not yet decided if it is in its interest to be at the table.**

**Russia thinks that time is still on its side but is feeling the pressure, now increasingly also from friendly countries, to find a negotiated solution.**

The table is beginning to be set. With the impossible obstacle removed only the very, very difficult remains.

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*Update 2026-08-19: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.*