The Middle East, Israel and Iran
and the search for balance...
The Middle East and the search for balance there make up one of the geopolitical world’s so far not deciphered equations. This region has, because of its most near-century history, and the riches it holds become a recurrent geopolitical flashpoint.
As of a few weeks there have been developments again drawing the world’s gaze to this region. Initially, severe internal unrest, encouraged by Western powers, occurred in Iran. This uprising was harshly put down and depending on which reports to believe a differing number of thousands of protesters were killed.
While this unrest was ongoing the United States threatened to intervene militarily with strikes. How this would have affected the uprising has been debated, with many arguing that many in the proud Persian civilization want a change of leadership but that there is little appetite for this being executed by an external hand.
Without assessing intent something interesting came to light after the US threats. Stakeholders from left and right, above and below, in a substantial way, asked the United States to postpone any strikes. One thing became clear. None of the regional countries, including Israel, could guarantee their respective citizens safety without a larger US naval presence. All these regional actors also assessed that Iran presumably still has the capability to cause significant damage in the region using different means, their missiles still the most feared.
An American armada has now arrived. It will not be able to decipher the Middle East equation at this time but, in the short term, it will be able to decide outcomes.
A lot has been written about what is currently being negotiated with Iran. To clear the fog, one thing matters vastly more than others in these negotiations. It comes down to the enrichment of uranium.
Israel is territorially a tiny country. This constitutes its largest geopolitical disadvantage. For Israel to have a nuclear-capable country with the intent to annihilate it practically next door is an existential question, not without reason. A single nuclear bomb detonating on their territory could completely destroy the Jewish nation.
Iran has seen other countries give up their nuclear ambitions, Libya is the most striking example. Anyone evaluating the Libyan case must conclude that toppling Muammar Gaddafi after he gave up his nation’s nuclear ambitions was a global strategic mistake that is reverberating.
How could Iran conclude that giving up their nuclear capability would keep them more safe? How could Israel ever guarantee the Jewish people’s existential survival with a hostile regional nuclear weapons power?
The decisive point in current negotiations has boiled down to one of two things:
- No enrichment of uranium in Iran whatsoever, keeping options open for a closed circuit externally imported low-enriched nuclear fuel cycle for civilian use.
- Internally controlled domestic low-enrichment of uranium for civilian nuclear use.
I hope an agreement regarding this can be reached at a future point and that a long-term stable geopolitical situation can emerge.
However, at this particular point in time, assessing how things stand, I do not believe that an agreement regarding this can be reached.
Brace for impact.
Update 2026-08-26: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.