Black swans, Grey rhinos

We have all heard of the black swans and the grey rhinos. Both these concepts interest and occupy world leaders due to the upheaval value that they hold and thereby the implication they have on governance. A black swan represents a highly unlikely event that holds high or extreme risk. Grey rhinos are known factors that over time grow more likely but are neglected nevertheless.

For a person or organization events like these hold great risk and constitute factors that have over time highly, and sometimes suddenly, impacted the course of history.

To hold the top echelon of power in any system is a lonely position that is continuously being challenged with full force within the rules of that given system. A belief held by all top actors is that power is something you grasp, not something that is given to you. Events like the above described then constitute threats that have to be managed and harnessed. They have more and more, within given frames, been highlighted by leaders independently of the political system they inhabit.

We have the sudden risk, we have the neglected one and I would now like to add another animal to the family.

The Chameleon constitutes a risk that has initially been wrongly assessed or constitutes a phenomenon in which risk has changed over time. A Chameleon’s greatest risk consists of an often present inability to reevaluate a factor with a present-day lens and, if for example a risk is actually lower than initially assessed, not implementing it.

Nuclear power constitutes such a risk.

For China nuclear weapons parity constitutes another one.

Update 2024-04-26: Updated language for clarity.

Update 2026-08-22: Changed “Its greatest risk now consists of not reevaluating the factor with a present day lens and not implementing it.” to “A Chameleon's greatest risk consists of an often present inability to reevaluate a factor with a present-day lens and, if for example a risk is actually lower than initially assessed, not implementing it.”

Update 2026-08-22: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.