BRICS
and its long-term implications
Recently news broke regarding which new countries were invited to the BRICS grouping. Argentina, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Ethiopia were selected from a pool of aspiring nations. Their membership will take effect on the first of January next year and all six are expected to join even if Saudi Arabia is still considering the membership and implicitly is open to alternative options. The region at the moment has an unusual amount of moving parts that could, depending on a few factors, result in different potential outcomes.
I have seen some commentary regarding the BRICS expansion, and my assessment is that the potential long-term impact of the grouping is undervalued. It is claimed to be to heterogenic, holding too many differing interests, values and strategic goals.
In some cases though, their interests align in a way that could lead to truly impactful results. The economic arena is such an example and especially in connection to trade and currency, there are a couple of likely scenarios with large global strategic impact. The member nations all expect a more multipolar world emerging moving forward and they all welcome such a development.
Expect the BRICS grouping to have a large long-term impact connected to trade and currency.
Another interesting observation is the geographic locations of the new members. They are all situated at strategic maritime waterways. Egypt straddles the Suez Canal. The UAE and Iran lie on opposite sides of the Strait of Hormuz. They also both indirectly have influence on the waters around the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Iran through their connection to the Houthis, and the UAE through the Southern Transitional Council and its control of islands like Socotra and Mayyun. Saudi Arabia has vast coastlines facing both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea and wields influence throughout the whole region.
Ethiopia is technically a landlocked country but its size, proximity to and infrastructure running into Djibouti (just at the Bab al-Mandab Strait and harbouring China’s most established military base) makes it interesting in this context. Argentina’s Cape Horn and the waters between South America and Antarctica is another interesting strategic location that will only become more important with time.
Combined with prior members the nations making up the grouping hold locations along many of the world’s most strategic waterways.
Expect the BRICS grouping to also be used to pursue strategic objectives other than purely economic ones.
Update 2026-08-20: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.