China, Russia and the US are all itching to perform new nuclear tests

The nuclear club has been expanded over the years and there is debate over who, not if, the next member will be. This is an important and interesting question this post will not discuss.

For much of the Cold War the United States of America and the Soviet Union both developed vast numbers of nuclear weapons but also, through negotiations, limited their numbers, with both nations satisfied being roughly on par with each other’s capabilities and placements.

With time, other nations developed their nuclear capabilities and performed nuclear tests. At present time adding to the US and (now) Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea are all recognized nuclear weapon states. Israel’s possession of these weapons is also established and regarded as an open secret. In addition to these states there are a number of (you would be surprised of how many and which) nations with a breakout (within months) nuclear weapons capability.

As China’s great power aspirations and their struggle towards the great rejuvenation of their nation, nuclear capabilities have come into focus. Internal discussions have over time intensified and their conclusion is that China can never achieve great power status on par with the US without having an equivalent nuclear weapons capability. They therefore refuse to engage in any negotiations limiting this capability while vastly expanding their number of weapons and their triad capability. Their aim is to remake the exclusive group of most capable nuclear weapons states from two to three members.

Nuclear tests and their ugly history make new ones a hard pill to swallow. Performing such tests also holds the strategic disadvantage of appearing as an aggressor. China’s conundrum is that they really can’t achieve their goal of nuclear parity without new nuclear tests.

The internal and external (geo)political threshold of performing new tests, combined with scientific developments both physical and digital, has made other nations keen on performing new tests to stay ahead or to keep their current place in the hacking order of nations capable of destroying this world as we know it.

In recent months advanced activity has been reported in China’s Lop Nur facility, Russia’s Novaya Zemlya area and the US facilities in Nevada. They are all prepared and itching to go but no one wants to go first which makes it a waiting game, not without strategic implications.

In almost any scenario the US can not go first without great (geo)political disadvantages. They will need a reason connected to either China, Russia or an unlikely wildcard scenario to perform nuclear tests.

To come on par with Russia and the US China in the end will have to perform new nuclear tests.

Expect that China will at length avoid making a move on Taiwan before they have significantly closed the nuclear gap and performed at least one nuclear test.

Expect Russia to use their timing of a nuclear test to maximize the strategic gain from it.

Expect North Korea to use the new strategic situation the nation faces to gain maximum strategic leverage. It makes them a wildcard other nations can use as a reason for their own actions in this regard. An unlikely but possible move from another breakout state could also influence timing and order.

Update 2024-09-19

I have been observing publications of timelines and when and how fast China could close the nuclear gap to Russia and the United States. My assessment is that this has and will continue to materialize faster than is perceived. On a plot chart my assessment would be considered an outlier.

Update 2026-08-21: Changed “plot diagram” to “plot chart”

Update 2026-08-21: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.