How the war came to the East
South Korea and how a European war came to their borders
The war in Ukraine is one of global implications. It has changed the global strategic landscape for a long time to come. Most notable is the cementing of the relationship between China and Russia.
The partnership between China and Russia constitutes the greatest global strategic shift since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
(Update 2024-12-05: One could argue that the rise of China is a greater global strategic shift. In my thinking the rise of China constitutes a global geopolitical development and that such a development differs in several distinct ways compared to a global strategic, or geopolitical, shift. If they are both considered shifts Chinas rise is a greater one.)
Combined with the conflict in the Middle East much of Western military capabilities are now being focused in a small geographical space. And what are they doing there? Wasn’t the coming fight, if it could not be avoided, supposed to take place in the east? The future will look back at our current era regarding it as one where much happened in little time. Events playing out are interconnected in complex ways that are not obvious at first glance. The war in Ukraine has and will continue to have growing implications also on the Asian strategic landscape.
North Korea has for a long time been isolated by a largely united global community. The war in Ukraine changed the calculus for Russia and a rapprochement was made. North Korea has a large stockpile of weapons and has for some time been supplying them to Russia, giving them an edge on the battlefield. Russia on its part, beyond food and fuel, has many different types of advanced technology and hardware that could be transferred to North Korea in exchange.
The fact that North Korea is now also sending a significant number of soldiers to fight in the war means that the exchanges between the two countries are on a level well beyond current assessments.
South Korea is watching this development with great unease. The nuclear state north of them is now getting access to advanced military capabilities. The power balance between the two Koreas has for a long time carefully been upheld. Suddenly South Korea faces an adversary that is no longer constrained and is closing the technological gap. The worry is that new Russian technology combined with capabilities learned on the Ukrainian front will lessen their deterrence. They have objected to this development loudly. Their assessment is that they are not being sufficiently heard and are left to fend for themself.
Expect South Korea to move towards developing its own nuclear weapons capability
China is watching this with unease of its own but has strategic reasons for not interfering in the dealings between Russia and North Korea. How the wars to the west settle will affect them and the strategic environment they navigate to reach their own objectives. The instability and its widening consequences now also in theaters closer to home will however cause them to with greater effort seek to restore stability.
North Korea is also immensely useful in different ways. One such aspect is the deniability North Korea gifts. When balancing international relations and dodging sanctions one could imagine North Korea being used for transfers of different kinds. Something enters one way and something leaves the other.
Expect Russia and China to use North Korea for deniable transfers.
Update 2024-12-05: See above
Update 2026-08-23: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.