It is all up in the air
and different futures are possible...
When our current time is assessed by future scholars, I believe that they will all agree that the time period from our present and roughly fifteen years forward was an era where more geopolitical shifts happened than in the following multiple decades. The order that was established after World War II is entering a rebalancing. Much will happen and every corner of the world will be affected.
The recent geopolitical moves from the US can at first glance be perceived as chaotic and somewhat irrational. The effects of these moves in the different theaters of the world containing density of geopolitical conflict are however another.
The United States has effectively thrown everything up in the air. They have created strategic options of movement for themself where different futures are possible. They have, in effect, signaled to their counterparts around the world that there are deals to be made. They have also messaged that prior considerations and alliances could all be reevaluated.
There is a table to sit around. Unconventional deals could be made. The table has a limited number of seats. Different futures are possible.
The, at this current time, most powerful nation has acted. Other significant actors are evaluating their reactions. All is up in the air.
Update 2025-05-05: The world is changing. A limited number of deciders will arise in the new geopolitical structure that is now forming. The positioning of different entities will decide who leads in their own right and who follows. The winners in this new era will rise to new heights while others will be frozen in place. When this new structure is formed it will be cemented for a considerable timespan.
Regarding Ukraine the question of right or wrong will not be settled. What can be achieved is a new equilibrium based on mutual respect for opposing strengths. The time window for this happening is, at this point in time, still open.
At the current trajectory actors both to the east and west of this conflict constitute future reactors and followers of the new order. The cement is hardening. Different futures are however possible.
Update 2026-08-25: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.