War in the middle east
and why Iraq is the strategic prize
Many parties in the Middle East had begun to bet on a modern future economic and military dynamic different from the one created by the founding of Israel in 1948. Water had run under the bridges. A new generation commanded the steering wheel. Cemented positions appeared movable.
The party with the most to lose then decided that extreme measures were their only way to change the course of history. The heinous attack on Israel on October 7th 2023 did just that. A large number of civilians were killed and atrocities were committed. As a response Israel has leveled the Gaza Strip to the ground and killed a 40-fold number of humans, mostly civilians and mostly women and children.
The above text constitutes a short description of events that have unfolded since October last year. As in my previous posts I do not intend to entangle myself in this ancient conflict whose current state can be regarded as nothing other than a tragedy. I will in this post convey some observations regarding the strategic environment in the Middle East and what are currently the long term strategic goals of different parties involved. Regardless of Israel’s, Hezbollah's, and Hamas's strategic objectives and their preferred outcomes, what will really matter on a global long-term scale are the future positions of the United States and Iran.
The prize fought over, under the cover of other conflicts, is Iraq. Except Bahrain and somewhat secular Azerbaijan this country constitutes the only other Shia muslim majority country in the world. Iran has patiently and strategically increased their power in the country through different proxies. Today they in practice command several armed groups and land areas in the country.
After the Baathist lid was lifted with the downfall of Saddam’s regime an intense struggle for power has been playing out between the United States and Iran. Iran’s main objective is to expel US forces from Iraq. They believe the current Middle East chaos will advance this goal. For the US an exit from Iraq would constitute a strategic disaster. The US Syrian presence would likely become unsustainable and Iran would dominate a landmass from the Gulf to the Mediterranean. For many US allies, this is a nightmare scenario.
When the dust settles, from a global strategic perspective, it is not the one who controls the territory south of the Litani River or who rules the Gaza Strip that matters. What matters is who holds sway in Iraq.
Update 2024-08-01: Updated language for clarity
Update 2026-08-22: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.