We are again in a timeframe...

Since the large-scale war started in February 2022, there have been at least two timeframes during which it would have been possible to cease the war under terms somewhat acceptable to both parties. For different reasons these windows were not utilized and the assessments underlying these decisions will be evaluated in future calmer times.

There are forces outside of Ukraine willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian as well as there are forces in Russia willing to continue the conflict at any cost to their own country. Usually agreed global common interests are disregarded.

I have for a long time assessed that many of the strategic goals underlying the continuation of the conflict are simply not accurate and not in Ukraine’s interests. This applies to the current situation where the battle lines have stagnated and an unacceptable amount of soldiers are being killed every day. When the war started there were hopes in different camps that the turmoil would lead to a collapse of Russian state leadership. This has not materialized.

The assessment that the time for a ceasefire has come is now shared by the actors on the ground, even if this, for strategic reasons, has not been publicly stated. We are now, again, in a situation where the main actors are looking for a way out of the current stalemate.

Other developments and conflicts around the world have for some time been interconnected with the war. Some examples of this are different conflict zones in Africa, Asia and the Middle East (most recently in Syria). The complexity of different conflicts interacting is a puzzle not fully laid by most.

There is now a deal to be made. Ukraine has been ceding while bleeding Russia for some time. Donbas is where the current lines are still moving. Kursk and other territories where Ukraine has used a “fist in the water” strategy will be important in negotiations. By now Russia realizes that such negotiations should not include what I regard as the four no’s: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro and Kharkiv. Other cities and territories where a large amount of people are Russian-speaking have already been occupied. It is time to come to terms with where the lines of the modern Russian empire are drawn.

These are the lines. Testing them further will lead to disaster. In a worst-case scenario for us all.

Expect the lines of a now possible ceasefire to be drawn around the current reality on the ground. As Ukraine now holds some Russian territory swaps of land could also be made. These lines should, where possible, be drawn along geographic barriers and where this is not possible be heavily fortified. Guarantees will, however they are created, have to be credible and able to hold.

This war will not have a just end. It could have a lasting one.

Update 2025-09-04: Corrected the spelling of the word ceding.

Update 2026-08-25: Changed “Other territories where a large amount of people are Russian-speaking have already been occupied.” to “Other cities and territories where a large amount of people are Russian-speaking have already been occupied.”

Update 2026-08-25: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.