White paper protests

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the following events constitute a watershed in the world’s geopolitical history pertaining to China. Understanding how profoundly and to what form can only be fully assessed at a later time with further amassed hindsight. Looking back in modern history there are other important events to take notice of. Some timestamps could be chosen and listed as follows:

1. The 1997 Asian financial crisis
2. China’s membership of the WTO in 2001/2002
3. The SARS epidemic of 2002-2004
4. The global financial crisis of 2008
5. The COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2019

These five events have all had a significant impact on the geopolitical course of history during the last three decades. There are, of course, many other global events like the 2001 9/11 attacks, the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, the 2003 invasion of Iraq or the two invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 that have had a more obvious and direct global impact in many ways. These events are however, in one sometimes useful way of thinking, categorised differently. The effects of events like those on the list are more subtle and are processed differently. They have, in stages and over time, more than other types of events constructed an inner model. This model constitutes a stable foundation from which China more confidently and assertively engages with the world.

The most important geopolitical pivot point on this list is by far number 4 (still unclear if number 5 will in time surpass it). During the earlier ones, China was catching up. In 2008 they for the first time comprehensively realised that they could actually surpass the US and become the first nation. This not only profoundly shifted how China was viewed by the world but more importantly how China viewed itself. The rising nation began making preparations not to serve but to master.

One of China’s sources of stability is that it more firmly controls internal sentiments, something that is extensively studied and viewed as a subject of existential importance. While battling COVID-19, this was extensively explored. The common interpretation is that the Chinese government flexibly adapted to the surprising breakout of the white paper protests. There are however alternative interpretations. My assessment is that they pushed the envelope right to this brink wondering exactly where the breakpoint was and how it would manifest. After following the development over the peak it was caught before gaining momentum with the flexible response preplanned. Much was learned.

To stay the nation that rules the world’s destiny, the US in 2008 should have begun implementing measures countering the increasing fragility of its position and begun implementing measures to retain its primacy. This did not, for a number of reasons, happen. Best strategy was allowed to slip. Now, almost two decades later there is finally an awakening. The US is late in the game but there are still paths for it to remain the deciding nation.

Donald Trump is, in many eyes, a controversial figure. My assessment is that, at this particular point in history, the most important thing for the US is that many things get done in a short span of time. Most mistakes can be fixed at a later point. Finishing second can not.

Clarification 2025-11-27: Changed the passage “There are, of course, many other global events like the 2001 9/11 attacks, the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, the 2003 invasion of Iraq or the two invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 that have had a larger and more obvious global impact in different ways. These events are however in one, sometimes useful, way of thinking categorised differently. From a Chinese perspective the events on the list are more viewed as having impact from the inside out contrary to from the outside in.“

to: “There are, of course, many other global events like the 2001 9/11 attacks, the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, the 2003 invasion of Iraq or the two invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 that have had a more obvious and direct global impact in many ways. These events are however in one, sometimes useful, way of thinking categorised differently. The effects of events like those on the list are more subtle and are processed differently. They have, in stages and over time, more than other types of events constructed an inner model. This model constitutes a stable foundation from which China more confidently and assertively engages with the world.”

Update 2026-08-26: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.