Why did Xi Jinping disappear in 2012

Reading the tea leaves is a telling expression often used to describe the difficult practice of piecing together the puzzle that constitutes the inner workings of Chinese top politics. The fog is dense, information is hard to come by and sometimes impossible to verify. Using the right tools and methods, there is however, a way to see what is unclear and to reduce the distance to the unknown.

This practice has historically been difficult even though China by tradition often clearly spells out and publicizes its goals and how they plan to achieve them. The current trend is that good information is becoming harder to come by as China seeks to more and more keep its competition in the dark.

Expect information regarding China to become more and more elusive as the battle regarding the rules and order that comes after the current turmoil intensifies. China views this aspect as, for the most part, an untapped competitive advantage. Expect persons being able to see through the fog to move from highly valuable to invaluable.

In 2012 Xi Jinping was on the cusp of reaching the top position in the CCP hierarchy. This had been his goal for a long time and the ambition driving his ascent would be hard for most to fathom. Among other drivers a deep desire to restore greatness to his country and countrymen combined with a willingness to forsake all else helped him reach this cusp. He also held and holds a belief that he has the answers and capability to achieve just this. He was and is a man with a plan.

As a highly skillful observer of the system surrounding him and the levers that drive it he decided to begin with a gamble. Having watched Hu Jintao’s agency hampered by Jiang Zemin staying on as the chair of the Central Military Commission and wielding influence long after Xi Jinping decided that he could not realise his vision under similar circumstances.

Having secured the internal nomination Xi Jinping made demands. A power struggle played out over some time with Xi Jinping disappearing from the public eye beginning the 1st of September. Among noticeable events a meeting between the then US Secretary of Foreign Affairs Hillary Clinton and Xi Jinping was cancelled. On 15th of November 2012 Xi Jinping was elected to the posts of general secretary of the CCP and chairman of the CMC by the 18th Central Committee of the CCP.

With this bold move he gave himself agency and ability to directly start to realise his vision without waiting and maneuvering out his opponents over his first five years in power. The by the people highly popular anti-corruption campaign that I have touched upon in previous posts began shortly after.

In the Chinese system, and one could argue in many others, everybody striving for power have to “keep their masks on” and abide to the norms and consensus that is being conveyed to them from the top. One could visualise a pyramid of leaders with masks that only the top leader would be able to take off. Others would by doing so risk their place in the pyramid, prosecution or even death. Having cemented his hold on power Xi Jinping decided it was time for him to take his mask off. He concluded he had the tools and held loyalty with the right people at the right positions to start implementing his vision.

Had Xi Jinping’s vision and intentions been known before him climbing the top of the power pyramid he would not have been able to assume that position.

In 2017 Xi Jinping cemented his hold on power even more and in 2022 he was elected for a third five-year period of power disregarding prior precedent. He obviously has moved his nation closer to the great rejuvenation of China to a visualized position that is rivaled by none. This in Xi Jinping's mind is only as natural as him being the leader seeing to it. He views the current geopolitical shifts as restoring a natural balance that has been distorted by Western interference. In his view the last two centuries are an anomaly to remedy.

Xi Jinping has as a leader and for his nation accomplished great progress. He wants to be the most impactful leader ever, in the world’s most powerful country in history.

Fathom that.

One of my motivational reasons for writing this post is to highlight the black swan risk the current Chinese pyramid of power poses. Who will be the next leader rising to the top of the pyramid and decide to remove the mask?

Update 2026-08-23: Changed “would be able to take off or risk their place in the pyramid” to “would be able to take off. Others would by doing so risk their place in the pyramid”

Update 2026-08-23: Changed “Xi Jinping has as a leader and for his nation accomplished great progress. He wants to be the most powerful leader in the world’s most powerful country.” to “Xi Jinping has as a leader and for his nation accomplished great progress. He wants to be the most impactful leader ever in the world’s most powerful country in history.”

Update 2026-08-22: Corrected grammar and spelling (going through old posts using a new tool). The content of the text was not changed in any way.